Canada has launched its first effort to estimate how many people are living in the country without valid immigration status after overstaying their authorized stay. Statistics Canada has established a special team to develop an estimate using immigration and border records, according to reporting by New Canadian Media on October 29, 2026.
The initiative comes as the government faces questions about how accurately it tracks temporary residents who leave Canada, renew their permits or remain after their status expires.
For international students, workers and visitors, the announcement is a reminder to understand the difference between an expired document and expired immigration status, and to take action before their authorized stay ends.
Why is Canada trying to count visa overstays?
Canada does not currently have a reliable estimate of the number of people living in the country without legal status.
Reported estimates have varied widely, from 20,000 to 500,000, while a much higher figure has also been raised in political debate. The new Statistics Canada effort aims to produce a more dependable estimate.
The project will reportedly combine records from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) with Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) entry and exit data. Statistics Canada is also consulting academic demographers.
The challenge is that border records do not always provide a complete picture. Some travellers’ records cannot be automatically matched, and people who apply to extend their permits may remain in Canada legally while their applications are being processed.
What the data gaps reveal
A March 2026 Auditor General report highlighted weaknesses in tracking former international students.
Of approximately 549,000 people whose study permits expired in 2024, around 39,500 were identified as having no immigration status and should have left Canada. However, CBSA could confirm the departure of only about 16,000 of them.
That left approximately 23,500 people unaccounted for in the departure records. This does not prove that all of them remained in Canada unlawfully. Some records may be incomplete or unmatched, and the government may not have confirmed every departure.
The distinction matters because a person should not be classified as an overstay solely because a database has not recorded their departure.
Does an expired permit automatically mean you are out of status?
Not necessarily.
A permit’s expiry date and a person’s immigration status must be considered alongside their application history and authorized period of stay.
For example, if a worker applies to extend their work permit before it expires, they can generally remain in Canada while IRCC processes the application. This is known as maintained status.
Depending on the application, the person may also be allowed to continue working under the conditions of their previous permit while they remain in Canada.
A visitor who applies to extend their stay before their authorized period ends may also remain in Canada while the application is being processed. However, maintained status does not automatically grant permission to work or study.
Applicants should keep proof that their extension application was submitted on time and follow the conditions that apply to their situation.
What happens if your status has already expired?
People who lose their temporary resident status may be eligible to apply for restoration.
In many cases, an application must be submitted within 90 days of losing status. Applicants must meet the relevant eligibility requirements, and restoration is not guaranteed.
A person who has lost status must stop working. They should not assume that submitting a restoration application automatically authorizes them to resume employment.
If more than 90 days have passed, the person will generally need to leave Canada and apply from outside the country if they want to return, unless a specific exception applies.
Because the consequences can be serious, anyone who has lost status should review IRCC’s official instructions or seek qualified immigration advice promptly.
What does the new count mean for international students?
The initiative does not mean that all former international students whose permits have expired are being treated as unlawful residents.
Students may have:
- Applied to extend their study permits before expiry.
- Changed to another valid immigration status.
- Applied for a post-graduation work permit or another eligible permit.
- Left Canada, even if the departure is not yet reflected in a government record.
Students should keep copies of their permits, extension applications, approval letters and travel records. If their status is uncertain, they should check their situation rather than relying on assumptions or informal advice.
What should temporary residents do now?
If you are in Canada on a study permit, work permit or visitor status, take these steps:
- Check your authorized stay. Review your permit and any separate “must leave by” date.
- Apply early if you need an extension. IRCC recommends applying before your current status expires.
- Keep proof of submission. Save application confirmations and payment receipts.
- Follow your current conditions. An extension application does not give everyone permission to work or study while waiting.
- Keep travel records. Retain boarding passes and other evidence of departure or entry.
- Get advice if your status has expired. Restoration deadlines can be short, and eligibility depends on your circumstances.
What happens next?
Statistics Canada’s new estimate may help the government improve immigration planning and identify gaps in its records. It may also support more accurate population estimates, particularly as Canada manages the number of temporary residents in the country.
For applicants, the most important lesson is straightforward: maintain valid status, keep your documents, and do not confuse an unrecorded departure or an expired permit with a complete assessment of your immigration situation.
Worldbridge Immigration can help prospective applicants understand Canadian immigration requirements and assess suitable study, work and permanent residence pathways.
